If he is declared innocent of ball tampering, either now, or on appeal (if there is one), what moral basis would there be for sanctions on the forfeit?

Logically, the forfeit would never have happened had there been no ball tampering accusation. So if that accusation is indeed unfounded, would it be fair to impose penalties for the forfeit, or should he be able to argue that he was provoked by what he perceived was the bias of an official?

Of course, if he is indeed proven (in a fair and transparent process) to be guilty of ball tampering, throw the book at him by all means - the full 8 matches.

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A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes
Mark Twain