This is the key. To win in New Zealand, you need accomplished swing bowlers to exploit the conditions. Only in a really strong summer will the pitches be very condusive to spin. Living in Wellington, I can tell you that it has been one of the wettest winters and springs on record and hence there won't be much spin seen at either of the test venues. This has been illustrated by the domestic season so far where all the spinners have struggled - Vettori, Patel, Bruce Martin etc.

The other key to consider is how used to the swinging ball the batsmen are. The Kiwi batsmen have had 3 domestic games (and their lives) to get used to the prodigious swing that we see in New Zealand. Therefore, even when Vaas and Malinga swing the ball well on a good line, the New Zealand batsmen SHOULD be able to read the lines well.

However, the Sri Lankan batsmen - even though they are a better line up on paper - should struggle as they do not experience these type of conditions regularly. Even their tests in England will not be of much assistance to them this time round.

I would say the Sri Lankans will struggle to come close to New Zealand here on damp, cold, swinging wickets.

To win this series, Sri Lanka need to put together 300-350 in their first innings and skittle the top Kiwi order for 50-100. Then, where other teams have failed in NZ is in pressing home the advantage from a score of 75-5 by failing to respect the ability of Jacob Oram, Daniel Vettori or James Franklin with the bat

For the Kiwis to win, they need at least one 100+ partnership from the top 4 wickets in each first innings and then to accentuate their skills when bowling. Martin and Bond opening - Martin with the unerring away-swingers which he can't seem to reproduce outside of the East Tasman and Bond with the 2-way swingers and the toe-crunching yorkers.