I don't see any of the second eight getting close to the top eight: the only room for upset is if one of the top eight have a complete shocker (generally underperforming with casual dismissals, dropped catches, lots of wides and perhaps reliance on occasional bowling as a frontline bowler pulls up injured).

The sides most likely to implode strike me as England (especially if Vaughan is absent), Pakistan (missing Shoaib, Asif and Razzaq) and possibly the WI (some young players, stacks of pressure at their "home" tournament).