I don't think there's any question that the Aussies wil do BETTER if the ball carries through well. Not sure they will necessarily WIN.. but it would certainly maximise their opportunities.

The killer point, for me, is not that Hayden and Gilchrist need true-bouncing surfaces to really thrive and bat teams out of matches (though that certainly should nullify thier distinctiveness)).. or that McGrath and Kasprowicz (if not Gillespie) need a bit of bounce and carry to really tie down great strokeplayers.. but more that Warne relies on pace and bounce to be a strike bowler: if the pitches are slow and low then Harbhajan Singh and Anil Kumble will be fine.. as they can get dart the ball in a bit faster and get turn even at a gentle medium pace... but Warne, with his slower, loopier deliveries, will just have to trust that the batsmen are too cautious to use their feet and use the crease well.

With all that said: my prediction remains that the key men for the Aussies will be Martyn and Lehman. If they provide some real grit to the Aussie middle order then there should be some good totals for the bowlers to play with and the Indian home advantage will be of less significance.