Aus firm favorites to win still, even with one day lost to rain. I can't see NZ pulling this off, I'm struggling to remember the last time any team managed to save a test against the Aussies, I guess it was Sri Lanka last winter (Aussie winter i.e, from one of those games played in Darwin and Cairns)..however point is that NZ batting just crumbles under pressue, they might recover in their first innings and be just able to avoid the follow on But I would suspect that even in that case they'd end up losing the match, some of their recent second innings score against Aus, England and Pakistan even have been quite below parr - NZ just struggle when they're put under that sort of pressure. I hope they can do better, but it looks an up hill task. Good luck to them.