A recent scan of online bookmakers shows the betting odds of the Ashes has Australia hot favourites to regain the urn in front of a fervent, patriotic crowd. The remarkable thing about the odds is they are very similar to what they were just prior to the Ashes in the English summer of 2005. However, the trend is the opposite and often trends have a habit of forecasting the eventual result better than the actual odds.

In 2005, England regained the Ashes as underdogs although their odds tightened leading into the Ashes series due to the good one-day form they showed against Australia in winning two of their six encounters and tying one. They may have been even shorter except that their side included a couple of inexperienced players in Pietersen and Bell whilst Australia's players were all established.

Since the Ashes Australia have experimented with some new players but still managed to maintain the dominance, they showed prior to their Ashes defeat last year. The replacements that have been successful are aged players themselves and, consequently, Australia will field an older side when they meet England later this year.

Since the Ashes, England's Test results have been mixed. They performed poorly in Pakistan, which caused their Ashes odds to ease but showed a glimpse of their ability with a series draw against India after winning the final Test with a second-string side. That win tightened their odds but Australia have been odds-on favourites ever since due to the spate of injuries to the England team and the effect on team morale as evidenced by an uninspired effort in the drawn series against Sri Lanka in conditions that favoured their seam bowlers.

After the poor result to Sri Lanka, the Australian media wasted no time in scoring some psychological points in the 'war of words'. Former Australian Test bowler, Geoff Lawson said, "Put your house, and mine, on Australia to win - and win comfortably." Former Australian Test captain Steve Waugh said, "England's killer instinct has gone". Worryingly, these taunts from the 'old enemy' have not spurred England to lift their game as they continue their poor form in the one-day series against Sri Lanka.

With their talismanic all-rounder, Flintoff, out with an ankle injury England could struggle to gain any winning momentum into the one-day and Test series against Pakistan.

Speaking to BBC Five Live Sport in this article, Chairman of selectors David Graveney has publicly highlighted his concern for the England team's chances in the upcoming Ashes. "If we continue to play the way we have been doing this summer, we will not retain the Ashes and we will not win the World Cup," said Graveney.

Surely, this pronouncement will strengthen the odds of Australia to win because Graveney admits that England is under-performing despite the injuries to key players. As suspected, the injuries are having a morale-sapping effect on the mindset of the players whilst boosting the confidence of the opposition. If England doesn’t turn this trend around before the Ashes, they will go into that series lacking any self-belief.

With this mindset, they will be vulnerable to the Aussie crowds who will take advantage of this and apply as much vocal pressure as possible. While Graveney is suggesting the England team stop making excuses for injuries the England coach Duncan Fletcher, in this article, appears to be continuing the line that the injuries are to blame for the poor performances against Sri Lanka in the one-day series. "If you take two players out it makes a difference. Take four or five out and it's a huge gap to fill," Fletcher said.

One would expect a coach to support his team publicly but the reality is that Simon Jones is very doubtful to make the trip to Australia at all and the backup bowlers used against Sri Lanka are not as dangerous. Giles is slowly regaining fitness and his form against Pakistan will surely be important in one way or another. If he doesn't shine against Pakistan, the England selectors will be in a quandary whether to risk him in the Ashes or gamble on the inexperienced Panesar. These sorts of problems leading into the Ashes can only sow more seeds of doubt in the England team and strengthen the resolve of the opposition.

Spare a thought for the record number of England fans who will make the long trek downunder to support their team. It would be a bitter pill to swallow for them if England capitulated like so many other Ashes campaigns in Australia in recent times.