Will England Retain The Ashes?.

[cantplaycantalk]

Australia to win for me,

Australia at home with a fully fit and in form team.
England with several key players either injured or badly out of form and in unfamiliar conditions.
Simon Jones (key bowler, possibly the best in England injured and out.)
Flintoff returning from long term injury, fitness unknown and form untested.
Harmison not the player who hit #1 in the world looks terribly out of form.
Trescothic emotional problems, no footwork and unknown form.

England should play
Strauss
Cook
Bell
Peitersen
Collingwood
Flintoff
Read
Giles
Hoggard
Harmison
Panesar

Or leave Giles out for Anderson/Mahmood depending on the surface, and Australia will probably face much the same team in 2009 as well although I doubt Giles will still be around, probably replaced by Rashid but it is early to tell yet.

On the Australian side of things I think the fitness of Warne and McGrath are key, and Warne more so than McGrath but if either gets injured it could swing things against the Aussies.

Australia are a better team now than the one which toured England, both Kasper and Gillespie are gone and replaced by better prospects and Hussey has added to the batting. England is more questionable, Panesar is a good player and adds something and Read is a much better keeper (though jones was improving with the gloves) however the England bowling as a unit is undoubtably weaker with 3 out of 4 Jones,Harmison and Flintoff missing or in questionable form and the England tail is very long, and this is only partially offset by the fact that the top order is undoubtedly (just check the averages) the best it has been in a generation or more.
In summary Ashes to Australia 2007 and back to England in 2009 as the old masters in the current Aussie team retire.