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Originally Posted by Goatman Apologies Scott. In no way did I intend to offend you, fail to give you credit, insult your intelligence or make a ludricrous point. I have obviously put your back up, for which I apolgise unreservedly. I have been told that my posts tend to be "tetchy", which is obviously a failing of mine because I was actually searching for a concensus! I certainly never meant you to become miffed, as your posts are always well argued and a pleasure to read. |
Goatman, thank you for your apology, but you don't really need to, it's just me being prickly, and I also enjoy reading your well thought out posts !
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Originally Posted by Goatman On the use of stats, I prefer to use numbers to test gut feelings. I don't think they are the truth and the whole truth, but if something is true it should not be contradicted by the numbers at least. There are problems and complexities, and as you do with Butchers stats above you are right to find fault when my interpretations are too simplistic. It may be true that the change of position for Butcher was coincidental, and experience was the key. I would still be of the opinion that moving back to open is likely to upset his form though. I like him at 3. If we have to drop/move an opener, I'd prefer the change to be acheived by moving someone other than Butcher. Hussain, though he does seem to have the mindset of an opener, is really not a very good starter. He is very good at staying in having got set - which is what people rightly highlight when talking about his grittyness - but he really isn't very consistent. I would not see Hussain as opener. |
That's the difference between us I think. You like to use Stats, and I don't really. I prefer to make my mind up from evidence I've seen and my own 'gut-feeling' about things rather than try to look at stats and see patterns. Statistics can be unbeleivably unreliable, and as I've said before - you can pretty much make them say whatever you want them to say, which is why I'm very reluctant to use them. How can a batsmans overall batting average spanning over say 5 years have any bearing on what his current average is based on his last 10 innings and what he will do in the future? This is the problem with statistics - they only tell a story about the past - not the future.
I am coming round to the fact that maybe I am being too extreme and possibly 'knee-jerk' in my thinking about the openers and that perhaps instead of changing both maybe only one change would be needed - I don't know.
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Originally Posted by Goatman I ahve read your comments on Vaughan (I did so before I made my post). I still think that Vaughan needs more time. At the end of the summer if things haven't picked up, we do need to take action. however, if it is the captaincy intself that is affecting his form not how he is trying to change his batting style, then to move him out of place would slow the recovery of form rather than accelerate it. We should make sure that we are right to think that he needs runs on the board before he goes out before we act, and I don't think that time is here yet. |
Hmmmmmm. Another of the 'lets wait and see' brigade! I'm convinced that the Captaincy is what's affecting Vaughan's batting, it happened to Hussain before him, but interestingly Hussain wasn't an opener! Maybe you are right and that Vaughan does need more time to settle in and that dropping him down the order wouldn't help.
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Originally Posted by Goatman Tresocthick seems to really excite debate, and I really meant that if you have it in for him that is fair enough - there is plenty of evidence on your side. Maybe he should be dropped down the order, allowing Strauss in. Actually, I would be in favour of this as Strauss looks like a good player and Trescothicks game (good eyes, no footwork) has been found out cruelly more than once in his career. He struggled to cement a place for Somerset as he kept getting done by county old hands. He got skewered by the Aussies. He has now lost form, and is batting worse than I do because he has nothing to fall back on. However, he has got good eyes he has scored runs and he can really batter the bowlers when he gets it right. I'd see him coming in at 5/6 when the bowlers are tiring, the ball is old and he can look to dominate from the start. He looks exposed as an opener, and I have to conceed that. Hopefully though, you will agree that he does have some class and we should be looking to get the most out of him rather than confining him to the dustbin of history. |
Maybe you're right here too. Maybe.
I certainly favour Strauss coming in to open in plaace of Trescothick, but whether Tresco should bat down the order or not - I'm not convinced. Like your same argument for Vaughan, I actually don't think that 'where' Trescothick bats is the problem - he's an 'form-confidence' player with little or no technique - if his 'form' has left him - how is it going to matter where he bats? He's still making the same fundamental mistakes due to lack of technique. Keeping Tresco and bringing in Strauss creates another problem - who do you drop - Hussain? Personally I think it would be wrong to bring Strauss in, keep Tresco and drop Hussain - Hussain's doing better than Tresco right now! Combine that with Hussain's desire to make it to 100 caps and I can't see it happening. If anyone has to go - its Trescothick.
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Originally Posted by Goatman I don't find the final paragraph irrelevent though, and here I think you do have it wrong. If a player is facing 25 overs more often than not (as is the case for both Trescothick and Atherton), then does it really matter how they are managing this? |
I'm afraid I still see it as irrelevant! You're still hanging on to your statistics Goatman! Stop looking at long-span career statistics and look at whats going on right now for goodness sake! What relevance has looking at Tresco and Atherton's long term career stats in terms of overs faced when Trescothick has failed to do anything in his last 10 innings? Has failed do occupy the crease for any length of time in his last 10 innings and averages mid teens in his last 10 innings? What does that tell you about Trescothick? It tells me hes is out of form and needs to get his confidence back - I see no correlation with that whatsoever with how many overs Atherton and Trescothick have faced in their careers.
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Originally Posted by Goatman I would say not. If a players game (not just thier form) deteriorates, and they are no longer capable of this then that is a different sitution than dropping them for lack of form, and has to be acted on. If you are acting on poor form, I feel that at least you have to be fairly sure that your replacement is also capable of facing those 25 overs, as you can never know when the first choice players form will return and you may be losing more than you gain. Just because you don't like statistics does not mean that this is not true! I was not trying to challenge your intelligence, and I do think this point needs adressing particularly as I completely refute the argument that the two situations are completely different! They are all openers, they all on average face the same number of overs. They are all therefore weighing in with comparable performances. I can't see your problem. And I don't mean to insult you in any way here, I just happen to dissagree. |
Well where this falls down is when you apply it to Trescothick - he's a 'form' player - he has little or no technique to speak of - and thats exactly the problem. His form's gone, and he can't fall back on his technique. I confirm my view that Trescothick needs to go back to County Cricket and work on his form/technique/confidence before he can push for a place in the England side again, I don't see why England should allow him to bat his way back into form when we need results now.
Interesting discussion!
Scott
23-04-2004, 04:34 PM
in reply to Goatman's post starting "Apologies Scott. In no way did I intend..." 
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