Australian Spin Doctors..>Stop Press Ian Healy Is The Latest..>

[Ernest]

Originally Posted by Leafy Seadragon

Ern, for a start, Healy is giving a professional opinion, something neither you or I (an assumption I admit) are qualified to give.

I disagree strongly here, Iand Healy has probable WATCHED a lot less cricket than I have, he may know more about the Austraian team, but he know no more than you or I about the England team, if as much.
I just see Healy comments as talking Australia up, and he gets through to a lot of people, get enough pessimism in the country, and it could filter right down to the team.
No more than any of us, but that's how this future thing works - unless the psychics really are on to something

Originally Posted by leafyseadragon

Depends what you regard as 'of late'. This Australian team (with the core relatively unchanged) has played and beaten everybody over the last few years.

I am talking the last two years, the time that some of Englands players came of age, the time that England decided to fight for every run, work hard to keep their wickets, with skill and bloodymindedness.

Originally Posted by Leafyseadragon

Actually the bookies are generally the one group that doesn't go on past form.

Past form with respect is all that bookies have to go on, I think the odds at the moment are somthing silly very high odd on Australia, but what settles the bookies market, are things like which player does what in the coming months, the odds will reflect from day to day, a bit like the General Election, Labour are riding high at the moment, a couple of bad polls, they will level out again.

Have Australia not lost twice in the last 4 years, or is age catching me up quicker than I though, England in Australia, and Indis in India?.

[Leafy Seadragon]

I disagree strongly here, Iand Healy has probable WATCHED a lot less cricket than I have, he may know more about the Austraian team, but he know no more than you or I about the England team

I don't think tht just because someone has watched a lot of cricket they necessarily have a better understanding than someone who has watched less. His reading of cricket has been critically reviewed and refined by some of the very best (Mark Taylor, Steve Waugh, the commentary box et al). Importantly, his reading of the game was well respected amongst the Australian camp, part of the reasoning behind him being vice-captain of such a successful team. I stand by my statement that Ian Healy is certainly better qualified to provide a professional opinion on cricket than me (obviously I can't speak for you). I think the same correlation applies to someone playing cricket - just because you play more doesn't make you better.

I am talking the last two years, the time that some of Englands players came of age, the time that England decided to fight for every run, work hard to keep their wickets, with skill and bloodymindedness

Much of this went missing in SA, so casts significant doubt over the ability of the team to regain it under the 2nd toughest test (Oz away would be harder). I recognise that the win over SA was significant, but this Australian team has been turning out these results, more convincingly than much of the English team has been playing 1st class cricket[/quote]

Past form with respect is all that bookies have to go on

Actually, its what they start their markets on, but they rapidly adapt as soon as any significant amount of money is put on. Generally bookies are not gamblers - they are money movers, creaming a proportion of the movement.

Have Australia not lost twice in the last 4 years, or is age catching me up quicker than I though, England in Australia, and Indis in India?.

The England match wasn't 'live' - ie. dead series

[Rachael]

Originally Posted by Leafy Seadragon

Ern, for a start, Healy is giving a professional opinion, something neither you or I (an assumption I admit) are qualified to give.

I guess you are saying Healy's been there, done that and does, without question, know what he's talking about. I take it we can all agree that he is a better judge of cricketing ability than most of the rest of us... that he's got a sounder appreciation of technical strengths and shortcomings... that he's got vastly greater experience in judging temperment and character... and that the rest of us really ought to show a bit more respect when he passes a well reasoned judgement.

The quote was "This England team, while they are better and on track, I can't see them beating this Australian team in a game" and seeing as that's pretty much what every seasoned ex-professional is also saying (throughout all of the newspapers, on TV, on the radio) I really don't see why he should be singled out.

Originally Posted by Leafy Seadragon

Actually the bookies are generally the one group that doesn't go on past form. They balance out the odds on what has been bet to reflect the market.

Absolutely. They set the odds so that they win whoever wins.. and form has bugger all to do with it.

If anyone is going on "form" it's Ernest: he's rather optimistically suggesting that a fairly dodgy English run over the past 18 months (with serial batting collapses and patchy bowling in Sri Lanka, the West Indies, England and South Africa) is a sound basis for confidence (as if the players haven't noticed that Strauss, Thorpe and the tail enders have been papering over weedy batting performances and that getting 20 wickets in a match has been largely dependent on extreme displays of ineptitude by successively collapsing opponents.

As Healy says, there's a difference between being "better and on track" (though I'm not convinced: that's displaying a certain lack of respect for preceding England teams who, to my mind, deserve more credit than they get) and having grounds to think the Ashes are there for the taking.

[Ernest]

Ah but I did not single him out, I have also mentioned "gob almighty" Thommo, (A seperate thread by RBLC in the NMGL), and a plethora of English reporters, and so called England supporters

And I disagree with both you and Leafyseadragon, how does he know enough about England, or Australia for that matter, to jusp to the conclusion that England will not win a game, even Ponting is not that stupid, he realises that a game is on, and he can hold the Ashes hight When (I would say if) Australia beat England by any sort of margin, or even a tied series would be enough.
In fac't none of us knows, I I have been watching cricket for more years than your age Rachael,and probably more than Ian Healy, but I can't see an Australia whitewash, no grounds to assume that.

Originally Posted by Leafy Seadragon
Actually the bookies are generally the one group that doesn't go on past form. They balance out the odds on what has been bet to reflect the market

And punters bet on form, Aussie punters will be betting on the what Australia has done over the last few years, not on whats going to happen.
The market reflects the ammount of money either way.

[Rachael]

Originally Posted by Ernest

how does he know enough about England, or Australia for that matter, to jusp to the conclusion that England will not win a game

Healy's not saying it's impossible for England to win a game.... he's just saying he can't see it happening: he's casting his seasoned eye over one of the greatest sides to ever play the game and a challenger that looks to be making progess but lacking the class and simply stating the obvious - that the latter looks to be a number of world class players short of genuine credibility.

Originally Posted by Ernest

In fac't none of us knows, I I have been watching cricket for more years than your age Rachael,and probably more than Ian Healy, but I can't see an Australia whitewash, no grounds to assume that.

There's a bit difference between assuming a whitewash and not being able to see a whitewash: if you've watched England play cricket for even a few years you should have no problem seeing an Aussie whitewash (should be easy, just think back to those of the past). I can see Australia slipping up in one game (especially if that game is a dead rubber) as even great sides slip up occasionaly: doesn't mean I'm assuming they WILL slip up.

Thing is... as all but you seem agreed... it's going to take a monumental SERIES of slip ups for England to win the Ashes: technically possible.. but about as likely as Chelsea not winning the Premiership!

[Milo]

How often have you seen McGrath bowl over the last 12 months, Ern, for you to make sweeping judgements about his form and ability? To think about it, how many games have you actually seen Australia play? Appears to me that Healy is probably in a better position simply from that point of view (regardless of his cricketing past).

I've seen plenty of both, and I know that Australia have been playing much better than England over the last 12 months. You use the notion of England only being able to beat who is in front of them when people criticise the standard of SA and WI, but you seem to have no consistency when you try to explain the Australian wins of the winter. Lucky in India? Did you see these games? Poor New Zealand? (the same NZ that has just beaten SL), and rebuidling Pakistan.

In four months time, we will know whether you ar right or wrong. Maybe then you might come on this board and be a little less dogmatic about your opinions.

[Ernest]

Originally Posted by Rachael

Healy's not saying it's impossible for England to win a game.... he's just saying he can't see it happening: he's casting his seasoned eye over one of the greatest sides to ever play the game.

Well Rachael, I think Ian Healy has made it plain that he does not think England are good enough to win a series against Australia, but it does not stop at Ian Healy does it?, other Australian pundits are saying the same thing, but wth not as much tact, if that is possible.
Worse people are believing them, including England supporters.
How many times have I heard this is the greatest Australia side ever, why lots of sides in the last 3 decades have been great, how long was Australia great with Lillee and Thommo, is this Australian side now, as good a side as the West Indies teams with the like of Andy Roberts, Marshall,Garner, Haynes, Holding, Abrose , Walsh I will stop there, spanned generations.
OK this Australian team may have been great, but one of the greatest ever??, but even so, the fact remains the main players are getting older, and at one point they will be beat.
Who is Healy to say, or Thommo or whoever that it won't be this summer, maybe after this long tour Australia have had, McGrath 35 and rising in July, might just br a tad jaded, and at his age, who could blame him.

Originally Posted by Rachael

it's going to take a monumental SERIES of slip ups for England to win the Ashes: technically possible.. but about as likely as Chelsea not winning the Premiership!

Well your football analagy just bears me out, man Unt and the Gunners shared the premiership for ages, and left a chasing pack, well behind, so I take this from your point, Chelsea have ended that domination, you see it happens, so Rachael on your analagy with Soccer, Could England not be to cricket, what Chelea are NOW to the premiership.

Originally Posted by Milo 44819

How often have you seen McGrath bowl over the last 12 months, Ern, for you to make sweeping judgements about his form and ability?

None at all Milo, I am judging (as you put it) on McGath being well over 35 when the Ashes series start, I don't (and never have ) doubted his form against the teams he has played this last two years, I just THINK Englands batting line up is a good one, and a line up that is used to winning.

Originally Posted by Milo

To think about it, how many games have you actually seen Australia play? Appears to me that Healy is probably in a better position simply from that point of view (regardless of his cricketing past).

Two part question.
1) I have seen every Ashes series in England sinse I was six or seven years of age one way or another,and listed to the radio for the away games, and that is a long time ago.
2) I agree Healy is in a better position to talk about Australia, but not about England, that being so, he should not forcast England will not win a game, Ponting is not being that stupid, thing is Milo, some people believe it when such as Healy and Thommo make such predictions.

Originally Posted by Milo

I've seen plenty of both, and I know that Australia have been playing much better than England over the last 12 months.

Really , how do you know Australia have played better than England this last 12 months?, they have only beat was was put in front of them, just like England, and how many games did England lose?.

Originally Posted by Milo

Did you see these games? Poor New Zealand? (the same NZ that has just beaten SL), and rebuidling Pakistan.

Good so England must be better than I thought, if we beat a New Zealand side that good 3-0, good point.

Originally Posted by Milo

In four months time, we will know whether you ar right or wrong. Maybe then you might come on this board and be a little less dogmatic about your opinions.

What opinions am I dogmatic about Milo?, I believe England are better than most people say, I don't listen to the dogmatism of such as Healy and Thommo.
What is being dogmatic about believing England have a chance of beating Australia?, when other posters are saying England all but don't have a chance, i don't agree, and say so.

[Richie Benauds Love Child]

Well if thats what Mr Healey thinks, fair enough. He was honest and not disrespectful about individuals like thompson was, and there is logic in his reasoning.

To be honest, the ashes cant come quick enough now.We've the aussies drumming us down, the the point of being over the top and we're liek a club side compared with them, english press talking us up to mythical status, harmo giving the aussies carte blance to turn him into a mental wreck etc etc etc. I'm no longer sure who's going to do well. Just get on with the game !!!!

[Occasional Fan]

I'm getting a bit twitchy myself, RBLC. But, heck: it's still 5 1/2 weeks before the 1st Test against Bangladesh!

[Ernest]

Well to hear some people and not just Aussies, England are so far behind Australia, that I wonder is it worth turning up, I have never seem as much hype about any one team.
People seem to forget the Australian 11 are just people, and they will be contesting the Ashes series with 11 people from England wanting just as much to win the Ashes series.

The sooner July comes the better it will be, lots to happen in that time.
The Bangladess series will take our minds of the Ashes for a while, Now there's a thought????