Despite having berated Fletcher continuously over the ODI selections and strategys over the past few weeks, i reverse all this and give him credit for this tour selection.
Imo, and this is only guess work, but based on logic, it would seem to me that that actual reserves for the team are the 'academy' team, they will be playing cricket for the whole tour and will be ready to come into the side with overs/innings under their belt, whereas giles, anderson, plunkett and co will only have had a couple of goes in some warm up games but are experienced enough to pass on their knowledge in the dressing room to help out the main team. In giles' case he probably would get the nod as a second spinner if he's fit rather than taking from the academy, but i do think that if tremlett and broad are taking wickets in their regular tour games for the academy fletcher would be more likely to draft them into the side if one of our main bowlers gets injured.
Let's face it, in recent times the 12th-14th man is just the drinks carrier, we rarely swap the team, so why bother having tremlett, broad and co sat in the dressing room when they could be playing in another match and be far better prepared to come into the side at short notice?
Of course I could be completely wrong and Fletcher has taken his retarded ODI decision making into the Test arena, but given that he's been a very good Test coach for the past few years i'm more inclined to believe he has a plan, or at least optimistically hope he has
I don't think this side can win the ashes, although we have a fair chance of retaining them, but i agree with rachael that considering the nature of aussie wickets the extra batsman would probably be more useful, even if it is a negative tactic. As much as i like hoggard and acknowledge his form over the past winter, i can't help feeling he will offer nothing on this tour and if we're going in with 4 bowlers then i'd rather see a someone with real pace as that's pretty much the only thing that works on aussie wickets.