As an experiment in 'modelling' I have created a mathematically based forecast of the World Cup tournament. I know nothing about cricket and would struggle to name most of the teams in the tournament, however, from what I've seen reading some of the threads in this forum my forecast doesn't seem to be a million miles away from what most would expect. My forecast is on my web site at www.JWJonline.net/world-cup.php and I'd be very pleased to recieve any and all comments. Thanks

Just spent a bit of time looking at this. It looks pretty gloomy for England fans. I saw the football world cup predictions and you got a lot correct (more than 50 %) . Are you doing one for the rugby world cup this year too?

Could you use the info to bet?

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I have a dream.... (Martin Luther King)

Having I fallen asleep for over 2 months and South Africa has won the world cup?!?
Does it take anything into account other than ranking?

Richard, thanks for spending time having a look. Yes, it does look gloomy for England but, and what I like about this method, if any team performs better than expected, then they are rated more highly in subsequent matches. There's not a lot to choose between the top 3/4 teams and it wouldn't take too many unexpected results to change the whole expectation of the tournament. If England can pull off a few good results then it could look a lot brighter for them.

Yes, it is my intention to do the same sort of forecast for the Rugby later in the year.

Use it for betting? It's primarily done for a bit of fun and there is a disclaimer on my site stating that I will not be responsible for any losses that occur as a result of bets placed. That said, if you viewed some of the emails I received during the Football world cup you will have seen that many people used the forecast as the basis for sweepstakes, competitions, etc ... and they seemed to do very well.

Pacehitta, Yes it does otherwise it would be showing Pakistan as beating India and Sri Lanka and England beating the West Indies. Ranking is obviously a key element, but it's not the only factor. In fact, I do have some late adjustments to make as a result of feedback I've received so I'll be updating it all later.

What are other factors?

Current form? How bowlers will suit a pitch?

It is difficult to include factors such as a bowlers suitability to a pitch because we don't necessarily know who will be bowling and when, just as we can't predict injuries. An injury to a key player could well affect the final result quite considerably. I did consider building in some random factors to cover such eventualities but couldn't see the point. Certainly factors that reflect that a team may not be at full strength, and others that are weighted towards current performance rather than historic achievement.

May I ask a question? One of the issues I have wrestled with is how to cater for draws (or No Results). At this time I am assuming every match will have a winner and a loser. Given the nature of the climate with regards to weather issues, and in the light of previous World Cup tournaments, is it reasonable to assume all matches will achieve a result?

What I don't get is how Pakistan appear in the semi-finals: they are predicted (not uneasonably) a big fat zero against pretty much everyone except the minows and with Abdul Razzaq, Mohammed Asif and Shoaib Akhtar out the must be the LEAST likely semi-finalists of the eight major nations!

I can't even see Pakistan bettering England without that trio!

I've no problem with Aus, NZ and SA being considered favourites for a semi final spot... but I'd place Sri Lanka slightly ahead of India, England and the WI as favourites for the 4th spot.

In an ODI which is the format of the World Cup...draws are not too likely...they do happen...

but I guess weather can also force a draw...off the top of my head taking weather into account 1 out of 30....maybe maybe 1 out of 25...

Where the stats guys?
Otherwise a very good weatherman could tell you if it's likely

Excellent!!! Embarrassing, but excellent!!!

My projections have Pakistan 7th just below WIndies and India, with Sri Lanka 4th. Your comments had me scratching my head as to why they were showing in the semi-finals. Having checked my spreadsheets I discovered an error that crept in last time I was doing some updates. It's fixed now and I'm very grateful for the feedback.