Working on the next safe bright spark principle like labor eventually led it self to after about 3 consecutive trips up the garden path.
Mal Brough will be the next Liberal Prime Minister of Australia.
How long that takes depends on how much time the Liberal party wants to take touring the peripherals with Peter Costello and Malcom Turnball whilst in opposition to Kevin Rudd.
Labor learned the hard way with Kim Beasley unsuccessful twice then having a crack at an ideological zealot in Mark Latham that you can end up out in the cold in Australia for a long time if you don't get your opposition Prime ministerial opponent right. 1996-2007 is a long time in the cold.
Mal Brough straight into the top liberal spot will side step a lot of the problems labor faced in opposition such as to close to the previous government Beasley/Costello.And policy to far away from average Australians Latham/Turnbull.
Mal Brough like Kevin Rudd seems to be close to the middle and more importantly comfortable in his own skin whilst still delivering abstract well thought out policy.
Joe Hockey is more like a deputy in waiting much the same as Julia Gillard is to Kevin Rudd great populists but just short of killer decisive punches.
At the end of the day the sooner Mal Brough is elected liberal leader the sooner they will regain power after labor enjoys a win in 2007.

Almost anyone would be an improvement on little Johnny Howard (and his chum Alexander Downer).

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A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes
Mark Twain

I agree that Costello and Turnball are not liked the Australian electorate. To some, Turnball comes across as a cold, hard ex-merchant banker who sees people not as human beings but at numbers and statistics. To some, Costello comes across as arrogant and perhaps a bit of a weirdo. If Turnball ever gets his hands on the treasury or prime ministership, i won't be surprised if he tears down every social institution he can, and sells Australia out lock stock and barrel to the multi nationals. Costello however i have faith in, and consider him Australia's best PM option.

Rudd is doing well no doubt. But gillard is already starting to unravel, and the election is still 4 mths away. She's going to get torn apart come election time. And the rest of the Rudd team is suspect too. Even the most diehard Labor supporter would have a nervous swallow when the think of Swann holding the treasury. And Garrett's radical environmental agenda will not go over well once Australians learn the true economic cost (When the Gov't talks about a Garrett recession, they were not joking. What he is proposing will lift inflation big time, which drives up interest rates, thus reduced comsumer spending, thus higher unemployment and so on until you have a snowballing recession)
Acker, i reckon the Libs are going to win comfortably. Maybe they might lose their senate majority, but they will hold power i reckon.

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I suspect you are referring to Australia's foreign policy Maranello. In hindsight one must conclude that he has gotten us into a bit of a mess. Deployments in 4 pacific islands, Iraq, Iran, and this damned war on terror. But i am not so sure that Australia had any less choice in joining the US than, say, Pakistan
But domestically, his gov't has done wonders.
In the top 5 nations for GDP per capita, taken unemployment from 10% in 1996 to 4% in 2007, doubled our gross GDP in a single decade.

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Yes, I was referring entirely to the Libs' foreign policy - and my comment was partially tongue-in-cheek... there's not much reason to believe that any other Australian Liberal prime minister would have acted differently.

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A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes
Mark Twain

The opposition leader, Rudd, has a policy of immediate pull out from Iraq, while maintaining forces in Afghanistan. Risky move if he wins power and goes ahead with it.
Most Australians are unaware reliant we currently are on the US. Our entire defensive strategy over the last 60 years has left us reliant on the US. Our intelligence capabilities are reliant on the U.S. Our only source of high tech defensive weaponry, including the missile shield, is reliant on the US. Without the US, Australia would need to spend enormous amounts of money on second rate equipment and more soldiers to physically defend ourselves. Basically in military terms, Australia will become deaf, dumb and blind and naked without the US.

For all the above, all Australia has to do is supply token forces, as we once did for the British, when requested by the US and maintain that token force until the US is happy for us to leave. If we break our end of the bargain and have a sudden cooling of relations with the US, it may well leave Australia better off - we would at least regain some of our sovereignty and be finally rid of foriegn entanglements. But i can only get the feeling that we risk replacing one master in the US, for a less benevolent one in China.

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I wonder who will go down in history as destroying the USA's aspirations in Iraq.

My view in the long term a name synonymous with white anting may be written in the history books.

Al Gore

Moods changing down under, maybe John Howard wont contest the next election now more than likely March rather than November.
Mal Brough has sured up his numbers a fair bit and Costello looks about to be sidestepped by his liberal peers.
I suggest Mal Brough will either be Australia's Prime Minister next year if Howard departs or gets pushed and Mal can dazzle quickly in a brief campaign (which he has showed the potential to like a young liberal Bob Hawke)
Or Kevin Rudd will become Prime Minister of Australia, John Howard will retire and Mal Brough will become opposition leader.
My personal opinion is the Lib's will not go to the polls until next year, and if their current poll ratings do not improve John Howard will be gone before Christmas.
Peter Costello is probably dead meat.
The vote for leader will more than likely be Mal Brough vs Malcolm Turnbull which Mal Brough should win.
Joe Hockey may be worth a few bob as an outsider.