Crystal ball time - what will the test rankings be in three years time?

[Seamer]

I am going to state my prediction in where world cricket will stand in three years time and a brief summary of why. I would like to hear some of your predictions as well.
Rankings - July 2008
(1) England
(2) Pakistan
(3)Australia
(4) India
(5)South Afica
(6)Sri Lanka
(7)New Zealand
(8)West Indies
(9)Bangledesh
England: There batsmen will be at their peak by this time and few bowling attacks will be able top dismiss them cheaply. Bowlers will be seasoned, experienced, used to success and will perform off the back of their batting performance. Will struggle to win in the subcontinent but will be nigh on impossible to defeat at home and anywhere outside the subcontinent
Pakistan: Ther investment in youth will by this time be paying dividends. Pakistan focus on all aspects of cricket - Fast bowling, spin, batting and fielding which will ensure they are competitive anywhere in the world
Australia: Will be paying the price of the selectors policy in the first half of the decade. While still having talented players at there disposal, the sudden loss of so much experience will leave them vulnerable to the more experienced sides around the world. Playing under the shadow of there predecessors will take there toll phsycologically
(4) India: Will have a vast pool of talent to choose from, but their unwillingness to prepare non-spinning wickets will ensure they will be hard to beat at home, but will still struggle away
(5) While having many talented playes to choose from, The quota policy will hamstring them in regards to choosing the best team available.
(6)Sri Lanka will be facing the prospect of test cricket - post Muralitheran, and while still competitive, the nations above them will be too strong
(7)New Zealand: Small pool of talent will still be hurting them and while the odd player of quality will come through, the overall quality if the team will ensure they will be near the bottom
(8) Will still be struggling with a small pool of talent and internal bickering will still be simmering.
(9) Bangledesh will be starting to earn a decent reputation in regards to playing at home, but will still have a way to go to start beating the nations above them
Zimbabwe will be out of the fold
Overall, the diffence between number 1 and 6 will be little and will produce very competitive and hard fought test matches between the top six.
As i said, while not neccesarily assessing each team as i did, i would like to hear the predictions of other members as to what the ranking might be.

[Beny]

Because of the wording, '3 years time'. I'll explain them later.

1)Australia
2)England
3)India
4)Pakistan
5)West Indies
6) Sri Lanka
7) New Zealand
8)Zimbabwe
9)Bangladesh

[Mongoose]

Beny, I'm intrigued. What is going to happen in South Africa. Do you know something the rest of the world doesn't? Or have you forgotten to include them?

[Beny]

They're not important anymore....

1)Australia
2)England
3)South Africa
4)Pakistan
5)India
e.c.t

[Rachael]

My guess is that England and Australia are going to stay well clear of the chasing pack for a while on the basis of having the stuff in the background near enough right: the rest (excepting NZ) may get away with the odd wonder-player papering over the cracks.. but all seem in need of a lot more attention to the professionalism of the board, the quality of the domestic game, the embedding of some sort of "academy" system and so on.

I suspect the teams that will be excelling in 3 years time will be the ones whose peripheral players are best. Right now, Aus lead the way on that front (not automatically fielding players like Hussey and Lee, largely overlooking the likes of Bracken) and England are catching up fast (competition for batting spots is certainly hotting up, and players like Tremlett are just the tip of a new generation that's clearly being brought through "properly"). I'm not convinced the rest are going to be in a comparable situation in sucha short time-frame.

[Mongoose]

I think India will still be there or thereabouts, although still being much better at home than abroad. Sehwag will be at his peak, Harbhajan too. Who knows, P Patel may be the class keeper/batsman! Dravid should still be a top player - I think he'll be a player who ages very well. And I'm sure bolwing talent will continue to emerge - they're even starting to produce some decent quicks e.g. Zaheer.

[Zainub]

1) Pakistan
2) England
3) India
4) Australia
5) Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and South Africa
8) West Indies and New Zealand
10) Zimbabwe

REASONS: I am an internal optimist

[Paoli]

July 2008 will yield:

1) England- Winning absolutely everywhere, but the same worries that Australia had three years earlier are with them. Several key batsmen are into their 30's and England are basically winning without a spinner. Gareth Batty not up to the task, but 30 year old Harmison an integral cog for England.
2) India- Sachin will have been reduced to another batsman, whilst the 32 year old Dravid takes centre stage. Harbhajan to be taking a lot of wickets, and Irfan Pathan to have established himself as the world's premier pace bowler.
3) Pakistan- Shoaib will have matured and Salman a bona fide batting star. Sami will now be an integral part.
4) Australia- A huge fall from grace, no Martyn, Langer, McGrath or Warne, instead these players are now Hodge, Mike Hussey, Cameron White and Shaun Tait. There are more expectations on the aging batting line up which reads: Hayden 37, Hodge 33, Hussey 33, Ponting 33, Clarke 26, Katich 32. Shane Watson will be nowhere in case you're wondering.
5)South Africa- Now ready for a huge assault on the top. With the England tour approaching, the side led by batting stars de Villiers and Smith, helped along by the 32 year old Ntini with the ball, and the evergreen 34 year old Pollock, South Africa are now ready. Jacques Kallis is the 31 year-old undisputed star of the team, Monde Zondeki will have come on into an integral part of their bowling attack. Boucher will be at the end of his keeping days, whilst their is a need for a quality spinner.
6) Sri Lanka- A fair fall from grace, but with a 36 year old Murali and a 34 year old Vaas, Sri Lanka will be in need of another genuine spinner and a brilliant pace bowler. 2005 showed that Malinga and Maharoof aren't up to it. Also, Jayasuriya and Attapattu will be at the end of their careers; both 38 years old.
7) New Zealand- Hamish Marshall now the captain, allowing the 34 year old Fleming to finish his playing days as a specialist batsman. Led by the Marshall twins, New Zealand's pace bowling star is Butler with Vettori the chief spinner. Lou Vincent has established himself into a middle order role but NZ are yet to replace the retired Nathan Astle. Shane Bond will also be gone. NZ are ready to take over Sri Lanka.
8) West Indies- 39 year old Brian Lara continues to be an integral part of the lineup, and whilst not scoring runs at the rate he used to, is still the best batsman. Ramnaresh Sarwan is now the captain at 27 years old, whilst 23 year old Xavier Marshall is the brilliant opening batsman. The wicketkeeping duties are chopping and changing, and despite Dwayne Bravo's establishment, only Jerome Taylor fires for the Windies with the ball. In need of bowling stars.
9) Bangladesh- Have now beaten the West Indies and Sri Lanka as well as Zimbabwe and with the captaincy with Alok Kapali, Bangladesh's undisputed star, Mohammad Ashraful, continues to make important runs at the young age of 24. By now the great Mohammad Rafique is retired, but has been ably taken over by Enamul Haque jnr. Mashrafe Mortaza and Tapash Baisya are now test class bowlers. It is only a matter of time before this team can make an assault.
10) Zimbabwe- Gone. No First Class structure and making a mockery of themselves. Only Taibu continues to shine, whilst the country is still run by political thugs. The amoral ICC will not have taken a stand.

[vvvrulz]

Whoa very thorough predictions there Paoli !

In a nutshell, here is what I think.

England - Will be at the peak of their powers by this time and will take over Australia's mantle as the #1 team.
Australia - Will fall, but not all that far. We must remember that Australia has a vast pool of talent to choose from.
India - Capable of being at the top, but as always, will lack the mental application or the nerve.
Pakistan - Should challenge the best of them, but has a habit of falling to the Indians. (The test team)
South Africa - Under Greame Smith's helm should be able to secure 5th place.
West Indies - Providing they finally settle their disputes, their talent sould be able to finally flourish by now.
Sri Lanka - Will struggle without Murali, and with Vaas and Jayasuriya on their way, their bowling attack will suffer.
New Zealand - Their future prospects look extremely dull, apart from the rise of Hamish Marshall, who is yet to be tested overseas.
Bangladesh - By now will have chalked up one, maybe two home series wins, with a couple of competitive away series too.
Zimbabwe - Things look gloomy for them at the moment, and may not survive test status by 2008.

[Beny]

England - Will be at the peak of their powers by this time and will take over Australia's mantle as the #1 team.
Australia - Will fall, but not all that far. We must remember that Australia has a vast pool of talent to choose from.

Possibly in the real world but not in the rankings. Unless Australia all of a sudden turn horrible then the lead that already exsists over England, along with the fact that I still think we'll have a good enough side to challange the English means that in all likelyhood the Aussies will stay at the top for a while longer. The Gap may narrow substantialy though. Lets remember too that the team we see now could well be the same minus Langer, McGrath, Warne, Gillespie and possibly some of the older batsmen. Players can possibly play through until their late 30's now especialy the batsmen. The likes of Gilly, Ponting, Hayden and Martyn are all some of the fittest cricketers in the world and all have said that they would like to play on for a few more years.