Well for me I have included Sri Lanka these wickets and the West Indian wickets in general recently have been slow and low and turning and the Sri Lankans have the batsmen and bowlers to suit the conditions.
Australia, they may be an old and fading team but they have self belief and they just don't realise they aren't that good anymore. Sometimes the belief will carry you a long way, although I don't feel that Gilchrist is the threat he once was, Hayden is a flat track bully, Clarke doesn't impress me and Hussey seems out of form. With the loss of Lee the batting looks the weakest of any Aussie line up I have seen in years, heavily reliant on Ponting, but then if I was going to relly on any batsman it would be Ponting at the moment.
And finally England, they have just come off of 3 wins over Australia, have Peiterson back who can be extremely destructive, Collingwood looks in prime form, and a good bowling attack with Panesar and a number of usefull part timers to fill in with various types of support.

Agreed. A few more good performances and that might change........for the better .

I'm surprised India are 3rd. I'd rate Aus, Sri Lanka and SA (in that order) above India as favourites.

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Mark.

Agreed, especially given India's recent away form: they haven't won an ODI away from home since May: Statsguru. And even in their last win, it was only off the penultimate ball!

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"Being second is to be the first of the ones who lose."
- Ayrton Senna

Might be so, but they have to win away sometime....and with conditions favouring them, this time could be it. IMO, India's third position as favourites is justified, but I don't think they'll actually win the cup. Despite their lack of a top quality spinner, I still believe that South Africa will pull it off, either against Australia or India in the final.

To me, South Africa doesn't look to getting till the semis, at all. They don't how to play spinners, don't know how to play on slow pitches, they have no good slow bowlers, plus their bowling attack is extraordinarily monotonous, and their batting also is not too much imaginative. The racial selection policies compound the matters further.
South Africa? No, not a chance.
For me, Australia, India, and England have all got a very good chance of reaching the semis, and the other one could be anyone from Sri Lanka, New Zealand, or West Indies. From the semis on, it could be anyone's game. But still, my clear favourites remain as Australia, India, and England - in that order.

All this talk about Australia, South Africa, India etc...let us consider New Zealand's chances for a change. It is true that the Kiwi players' individual records on paper look modest when compared to some big names from other countires, but they do have some things going for them. A great captain, arguably the world's best restraining ODI slow bowler (Vettori), a world class paceman at last free of injuries (Bond), a couple of big hitters in reasonalble form (Vincent & Oram), two experienced all rounders with 'finishing' capabilities (Styris & MacMillan), two youngsters with some promise (Taylor & Fulton) and a real fighter wicketkeeper / batsman who can play well with the tailenders (McCullum). Above all, they probably play as a team better than any other country at present and have come off some amazing wins against Australia, albiet on their homeground. I think they are in with a shout...at least as much as India had in 1983 and Pakistan in 1992 so far away from home.

Well..... they should be 3rd in their group and on their way home before long

If Sri Lanka do, as I expected, knck them out... the following end with egg on their faces: Aussie-Yank, batoutofhell, bellum_851, Collyisamackem, Colourful Chaddi, DomainK, EllN, first change, greatbear, hyderabadi, jiji, Karthik, maihudon, Maranello, Occasional Fan, Richard Jenkins, sreepandiat, Vivasvan, Younis Khan #1

Wooden spoons to batoutofhell, bellum_851, Ernest, gangstacocacola, Richard Jenkins for picking Pakistan as favourites: I had them down as the weakest of the eight major nations and lo and behold... they're history

Well we know do have a little of a better idea...
A few teams have not been really tested though.

But it does seem that contrary to prior thinking...

1. There has been a good few successful run chases.
2. Seamers have been more effective than spinners.

I'm not going say that sub-contintent teams are not performing well because Sri Lanka looked convincing (though I do feel that there is NO WAY Bermuda is good enough to stage an upset against anyone in that group) and Bangladesh looked like a good disciplined outfit.

Dont like quoting myself, but yesterdays game showed why most sensible observers didnt have India making the semis. If Sri Lanka beat India which is very likely then they wont even make the super 8's

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Mark.